Table of Contents

Description and Explanation Of Our Reporting Scheme

Earth Change Monitors		Pole Shift Monitors
Super-Volcano Activity Report		Parametric Polar Plots
Torrid-Area Volcano Eruptions		Current Animated Polar Plot
Indicator Activities		Historical Animated Polar Plots
Polar Earthquake Monitor

THE CURRENT SCHEME FOR THE
EARTH CHANGE/ POLE SHIFT
MONITOR PAGE

An increase in features and capabilities of this website has caused us to reorganize the functional constructs of its various sections. Instead of dividing the site by article categories, we are now arranging the site around our various subject offerings. For example, we have put all of our Earth Change and Pole Shift monitors on this one page, entitled "Monitors."

The first section of the Monitors page contains our Earth Change monitor tables. The three main sections are as follows:

1. Super-Eruptive Volcanoes Watch, which updates erupting volcano calderas with volcano explosivity indicies (VEIs) of between 6 and  8.  (A VEI of 8 is the highest possible.) Historically, these are volcanoes with the greatest potential for producing super-eruptions.
   
   
2. Reported Torrid-Area Volcano Eruptions provides a count each Sunday of erupting torrid-area volcanoes over the previous 10-day period. These volcano eruptions, along with “upheavals in the arctic and Antarctic,” are prime precursors of the predicted pole shift.
   
   
3. "Indicator" Activities consist of intensity estimates for what we have designated as “indicator volcanoes”, crustal or volcanic upheavals at the poles, and volcanic or seismo-tectonic activities antipodal between the South Pacific and Mediterranean areas.  These volcanic eruptions and tectonic upheavals are also indicators of the predicted pole shift, and are updated each Sunday for the previous 10 days.
   

The second section of the Monitors page contains Pole Shift monitors. The three main sections are as follows:

1. Parametric Graphs of Polar Motion which are based on data provided by the United States Naval Observatory website and updated daily. These two graphics show the relative X and Y motions of the north polar axis. The X axis graphic shows the motion of the north pole as viewed from the perspective of the Greenwich Meridian, and the Y axis graphic shows the motion of the north pole as viewed from the perpective of the 90° east meridian.
   
   
2. Current Polar Motion Animation illustrates the actual motion of the north polar axis over time as if it were being viewed from directly over the North Pole. The animations starts in January of 2003 and continues to the beginning of the current month.
   
   
3. Historical Animated Pole Plots are similar to the Current Polar Motion Animation, except they are the record of polar motion going back to 1846. This section is only accessable by current subscribers to the Hutton Commentaries.

BACKGROUND

We have always felt that one of the most probable explanations for the statement in reading 3976-15 that, “the Sun will be darkened and the Earth shall be broken up in diverse places,” is that the Sun’s darkness will be caused by atmospheric ash from the explosive eruption of a super volcano. Past super eruptions of Krakatau (535 and 1883 A.D.) and Tambora (1812) in historical times have demonstrated the potential for ash-induced global darkening of the Sun. The pre-historical eruption of Toba (74,000 BP) so strongly darkened the Sun that the atmospheric ash load cooled Earth’s climate 5º-10º C. This caused catastrophic effects to the human race. Our species almost ceased to exist. As inferred from mitochondrial genetics, human kind may have been reduced to perhaps only five to ten thousand people.

For the purposes of our search for volcanoes that could one day "darken the Sun," we will define super volcanoes as those which by their past activity have erupted with a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 6 or more. The Yellowstone caldera eruption about 600,000 years ago reached 8 on the VEI. (Each integer on the rising VEI scale indicates that 10 times the amount of material is ejected relative to the previous, lower integer). The Yellowstone VEI of 8 was the highest ever computed, Tambora's (1815) VEI was 7, and Krakatau (1883) had a VEI of 6.

Super-volcano eruptions are driven by huge pools of viscous lava containing abundant trapped gases. After undergoing strong eruptive activity they produce calderas (large basin-shaped depressions). The caldera left from the great Toba eruption was 23 X 37 miles in size.

As for the length of time for a strongly explosive volcano to go from initial activity to a full-fledged eruption, here’s some historical information. Tambora took three years of lesser activity to build to its 1815 eruption. Krakatau started off with a decent-sized eruption in May of 1883, quieted down, and then blew itself away in August (Science, v. 265, 9/30/94, p. 2005). At present, The International Volcano Research Center is forecasting a  > 50% chance for  eruption of Krakatua in 2008.

Since most super eruptions are associated with caldera systems, we’ll turn to an article from Nature (8/17/1995, p. 554) that summarizes workshop proceedings dealing in part with “restless calderas.” A very short warning period of only 27 hours preceded the 1994 eruptions from the Rabaul caldera, demonstrating just how unpredictable caldera systems can be. Historical evidence for the Bronze Age eruption of Santorini caldera, however, suggests that precursor activity was sufficient in this case to warn even the most stubborn to abandon the island.

“One can only hope for such success if an eruption were to result from current [1995] episodes of unrest reported from the Campi Flegrei caldera in the Bay of Naples. This is arguably the world’s most dangerous volcanic field, with more than 1 million people in the region sandwiched between the caldera and Vesuvius.”

In its files for dated volcanic eruptions The Smithsonian Institution lists 7886 (T. Simkin, L. Siebert, et al., 1994, Volcanoes of the World, Geoscience press, Tucson). Of these, only 39 have VEIs of 6, 4 have VEIs of 7, and none have VEIs of 8. All 43 eruptions injected significant amounts of material into the stratosphere, and substantial amounts into the troposphere.